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Regulation or Strangulation?
Research for Online Investors

by John Dalt

6/18/09

The Oh! Bama administration has proposed a sweeping overhaul of the regulatory structure for financial services. It appears to be an expansion of the Fed’s power over the economy. Not only will they control the money supply, now they will be involved in regulating financial instruments, banks and hedge funds.

Treasury Secretary Turbo Tim Geithner appeared before the Senate Finance Committee on Thursday morning. This hearing is the first of many, as these changes in regulations will take months to digest and convert to legislation. One of the best observations was by Tennessee Senator Bob Corker.  He opinioned, the Fed was slow recognizing a problem was developing, but quick to react.  Implicit question in the comment, if they were slow last time, why would the Fed be entrusted with more responsibility? Sen. Chris Dodd (Connecticut) quoted an economics professor that opined that giving the Federal Reserve more authority “is like a parent giving his son a bigger, faster car right after he crashed the family station wagon.”

The New York Times has a late article on the hearings this morning.  Turbo Tim’s appearance before the House Banking Committee in the afternoon was canceled because of 26 (important) House votes.

Many believe the Fed enabled the home mortgage problems to reach bubble status through low interest rates. This is the antithesis to Bernanke's proverbial “take away the punch bowl” statements. Fed Chairman Bernanke has made this policy a cornerstone of the Fed policy to keep inflation from ratcheting up as the U.S. economy starts to recover. Fool me once…I’ll bet on inflation!

The Chinese government has issued a ‘buy Chinese’ policy in their stimulus program.  The edict says that local governments must use ‘only Chinese products or services unless they are not available’.   European companies are screaming about free trade.

Ironic, isn’t it?  The Chinese, who have benefited enormously from “Free Trade”, are the first to throw it out the window when it is their money and economy on the wrong end of the deal.  China’s trade surplus increased 15.7% in the first five months of 2009 over year ago levels!  The Financial Times has a great article on Chinese Free Trade.

While the stock market has rallied nicely since bottoming on March 9, the economy continues to struggle. For some perspective on the current economic recession, today's chart illustrates the duration of all US recessions since 1900. As today's chart illustrates, the five longest recessions all began prior to 1930. The length of the current recession (now in its 18th month) is above average and the longest recession since the Great Depression.

How Long Will This Last?

A short promo:
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The information presented in this newsletter is based on generally available news releases, corporate filings, current events, interviews and the editor’s opinions.  It may contain errors and you should not make investment decisions based solely on what you believe you have read here.  Do your own research, it is your money.  If you lose it, it is your responsibility, not ours or your grandmothers!  The editor may or may not have a position in any securities discussed.  The editor may have held a position in a security earlier, or in the future.

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