Oil, Oil Everywhere
Independent Investment Advice

by John Dalt

01/14/09

This week’s release from Energy Information Agency contained the following chart.

Table 1. Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Forecasts of 2009  

U. S. Economic Growth and Petroleum Consumption

You can see the economy slowing in the first two columns.  The four columns on the right show the demand destruction that has resulted.  All columns show an eight to ten percent decline in consumption.  Crude oil stocks are 39.5% higher than this time last year, a 1.2% increase over last week.  Oil continued downward today.  Oil started sliding before the report came out when the Commerce department released retail sales figures.  For 2008, retail sales were down 0.1 percent, a sharp turnaround after a 4.1 percent gain in 2007.  It was the first time the annual retail sales figure has fallen on government records going back to 1992.  Citigroup was the star of the day with bad news.  They look like they could be the first bank that is ‘too big to fail’ to fail.  The market looks oversold, but it could keep selling.  Tomorrow we get reports on export sales, jobless claims, and producer price index at market open.  More ‘good’ news to drive the market down.  If buyers come out of hibernation, we could see a rally.  There is expectation for a rally going into the inauguration.  I have difficulty believing it will happen since the markets will be closed Monday for MLK day.  I would expect a rally on oil only because of the turmoil in the Middle East and three-day weekend. 

Congress is holding hearings for the new presidential appointees.  Bernie Madoff is hiding in his penthouse negotiating a plea bargain.  Bernie wants to avoid thirty years to life in the big house.  Why not kill two birds with one stone?  Appoint Bernie Madoff to head the Social Security Administration.  He is accused of operating the biggest Ponzi scheme in history.  Social Security makes him look like a piker!  Rather than send him to a country club federal prison, why not make him stand in front of reporters and repeat how solvent Social Security is, your money is safe!  Oh! Bama could be accused of torture, of the American people.  Maybe this would force people to realize the big lie about social security.  If you do not think Social Security makes full use of Bernie’s talents, heck go ahead and appoint him to the whole Treasury.  He could tell the congress he needs more money to prop up the banks and automakers, another ponzi scheme.  Tim Geithner did not pay his taxes.  The media is trying mightily to keep him on track for confirmation to be in charge of the IRS.

The information presented in this newsletter is based on generally available news releases, corporate filings, current events, interviews and the editor’s opinions.  It may contain errors and you should not make investment decisions based solely on what you believe you have read here.  Do your own research, it is your money.  If you lose it, it is your responsibility, not ours or your grandmothers!  The editor may or may not have a position in any securities discussed.   The editor may have held a position in a security earlier, or in the future.

HOME

Back to Top

© Freedom Development, Inc.