Going Flat for Safety
Research for Online Investors

This article originally appeared in MarketToday on 10/06/11

by John Dalt

Going into the worst of August and September we were long in precious metals in our premium service portfolios. The idea was one of owning “non-correlated” assets. We viewed precious metals as rising or falling independently of the equity markets. We all know how that ended. We ignored the old saying of traders “Throwing the Baby out with the Bathwater.”

Precious metals took a dive as equities sold off and traders had to raise cash.  It didn’t help that CME raised margin requirements.  Bottom line, when any market is under pressure, it drags down every other market.  Crude oil, base metals, cotton, corn and precious metals all were under pressure as traders and investors liquidated positions to exit the market for safety.

Go Flat for safety

We hadn’t heard the term, but knew what we wanted.  We used the term “non-correlated” assets in letters to our premium subscribers to describe our reason for the heavy precious metals positions.  We have since learned the term “Going Flat.”

We have now employed this practice during the worst of the markets down days, except we are not buying precious metals!  We are buying “correlated assets.”  Except our correlation is almost exactly reverse of the equities we own in our portfolios.

What does “Going Flat” mean?  When the market is moving lower, we want to buy an asset that will move exactly opposite of the equity positions we are currently own.  When our portfolio goes down in value, our correlated asset increases in price.

This has been a revelation.  It is easy to freeze when the computer screen is all red.  What do you do?  Should you start selling?  Should you ride it out and see if the market will bottom and bounce in the last hour?

Every one of us has sold out of fear, and then watched the (now departed) stock rally and close back at its opening price the same day!  This is one of the fundamental truths, and challenges, of investing.

“Going Flat” takes the fear out of the trade.  You are simply making a decision to remove risk from the market.  Your goal is to freeze your portfolio value at present.  We do this by buying a reverse ETF that rises in price as our equity positions fall in price.

It allows you to relax and watch the stock market with detachment, as you are not being injured.  The difficulty is sizing. We use the TZA (Small Cap Bear 3X) ETF.  All of our premium services use strict asset allocations.  Five-percent of total investment per position in the Long-Term and 10-percent in Buy, Sell, Hold and SwingTrader.  When you want to Go Flat, you have to throw this out.

This was the hardest part for me, because I believe in small relatively equal size positions for investing and trading.  But we are not investing or trading, we are Going Flat.  In other words, there is no appreciable risk.  If the market goes down reducing our portfolio value, our correlated asset should increase by roughly the same dollar amount.  If the market goes higher increasing our portfolio value, our correlated asset will decrease by roughly the same dollar amount.

How do we do this?  The TZA is a three times Ultra ETF, so we need to buy a “super position” equaling one-third of our portfolio in TZA.  If our present investments total $100,000, we must buy $33,333 in TZA to Go Flat and offset the changes in value of our investments.

There is minimal risk.  If the market moves higher, the TZA position will lose value at roughly the same rate your portfolio is appreciating.  No Gains, No losses.

That is Going Flat.  I like it.

We haven’t recommended increased position sizes to our premium service subscribers yet, but we will be soon.  We have been employing large “Super positions” to Go Flat in our managed funds to good effect.  If you are fatigued from fighting the market, check out our Portfolio Management Service.  We do it in your Scottrade Account.  If we don’t make you money, we don’t charge you money.  This is your chance to enjoy life and let us worry about protecting your nest-egg.

Have you noticed that Berkshire Hathaway has not participated in the rally over the last couple of days?  It looks like when Buffett is buying, the stock holds steady.  When he is not buying the stock falls or holds steady.  He has committed enough money to buy 20% of the outstanding stock at net asset value.  How much do you think the company will spend in the fourth quarter?  I’ll give away a FREE Long-Term Portfolio membership to whoever guesses the closest.

We will keep track of your predictions and watch for the companies 10K filed in January. This little contest will run through Dec. 31st, unless the company announces an end to the purchases and the amount sooner. Whoever is closest wins a one-year membership in our Long-Term Portfolio. If you join now, I will refund your subscription if you win!

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